Sheffield United 1-0 Derby County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
23%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.33
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.55
6+ Goals
10%
14.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.33 — our 28% vs market 24.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.28
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.75
X/1
21%
3.99
X/2
9%
8.92
X/X
15%
5.0
2/1
8%
23.6
2/2
8%
6.97
2/X
5%
15.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
53%
-1.5pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.1pp
23%
Away Win
22%
+1.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.5pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sheffield United EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County EU Bookmakers 25%
+0% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -25%
1.80/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.51
+10% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -14%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
364 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 76%
29.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
22.9 Crosses 15.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sheffield United
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Derby County
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.71 xG 0.90
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
394 Passes 292
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
28 Box Touches 12
24 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.07.2023 Derby County Derby County 1-3 Sheffield United Sheffield United HAZ
15.01.2022 Derby County Derby County 2-0 HT 0-0 Sheffield United Sheffield United İNCL
25.09.2021 Sheffield United Sheffield United 1-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
24.08.2021 Sheffield United Sheffield United 2-1 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İNLK
01.09.2020 Derby County Derby County 0-2 HT 0-1 Sheffield United Sheffield United HAZ
26.12.2018 Sheffield United Sheffield United 3-1 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sheffield United
1-0
AWAY Derby County
1.10 xG 0.05
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 2
5 Shots on Target 0
11 Corners 2
328 Passes 164
81% Pass Accuracy 65%
39 Box Touches 11
16 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sheffield United vs Derby County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sheffield United squeezed past Derby County 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sheffield United as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Sheffield United had 61% of the ball to Derby County's 39%, shots finished 18-2, expected goals 1.10 to 0.05.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sheffield United had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Sheffield United and 0.83 for Derby County.

What was the final score of Sheffield United vs Derby County?

Sheffield United 1-0 Derby County in the England - Championship on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sheffield United vs Derby County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sheffield United win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Sheffield United 52%, draw 25%, Derby County 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sheffield United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sheffield United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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