Cardiff City 0-2 Leeds United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 21 Sep 2024

Cardiff City
0-2 HT 0-1
Leeds United
📅21/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-3 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Cardiff City vs Leeds United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.48
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
50%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.75
Over 2.5
54%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.96
No
50%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.98
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
26%
3.92
6+ Goals
9%
17.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
8.12
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
25.5
1/X
7%
16.75
X/1
10%
9.73
X/2
15%
3.75
X/X
11%
4.82
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
26%
2.17
2/X
5%
15.85
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
20%
+7.8pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.8pp
50%
Away Win
56%
-6.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
53%
-7.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
47%
+7.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.2pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cardiff City v Leeds United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cardiff City EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Leeds United EU Bookmakers 59%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -6%
0.88/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.77/0.77
-10% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -4%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
202 · 65% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 405 · 78%
15.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.3
18.3 Crosses 17.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7

Cardiff City vs Leeds United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cardiff City
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Leeds United
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.96 xG 3.38
34% Ball Possession 66%
7 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 10
208 Passes 474
68% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 39
9 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.01.2024 Cardiff City Cardiff City 0-3 HT 0-2 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
06.08.2023 Leeds United Leeds United 2-2 HT 0-2 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
18.01.2023 Leeds United Leeds United 5-2 HT 3-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City FAK
08.01.2023 Cardiff City Cardiff City 2-2 HT 2-0 Leeds United Leeds United FAK
21.06.2020 Cardiff City Cardiff City 2-0 HT 1-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
14.12.2019 Leeds United Leeds United 3-3 HT 2-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL

Cardiff City 0-2 Leeds United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cardiff City
0-2
AWAY Leeds United
0.12 xG 2.94
21% Ball Possession 79%
3 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 7
0 Corners 4
109 Passes 696
53% Pass Accuracy 89%
2 Box Touches 38
1 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cardiff City vs Leeds United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leeds United beat Cardiff City 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Leeds United as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Cardiff City had 21% of the ball to Leeds United's 79%, shots finished 3-15, expected goals 0.12 to 2.94.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leeds United led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Cardiff City and 2.50 for Leeds United.

What was the final score of Cardiff City vs Leeds United?

Cardiff City 0-2 Leeds United in the England - Championship on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cardiff City vs Leeds United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leeds United win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Cardiff City 27%, draw 23%, Leeds United 50%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leeds United) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Leeds United) ✗ Over 2.5
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