Mamelodi Sundowns 4-0 Mbabane Swallows — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CAF Champions League, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.16
Draw
20%
7.78
Away
15%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.89
Over 2.5
47%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.75
No
61%
1.39
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
4%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
82%
-18.0pp
20%
Draw
10%
+9.8pp
15%
Away Win
7%
+8.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
31%
+21.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
69%
-22.0pp
39%
BTTS Yes
32%
+6.5pp
61%
BTTS No
68%
-6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Mbabane Swallows EU Bookmakers 9%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-18% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
469 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 75%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.0 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Mbabane Swallows
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
77% Ball Possession 23%
19 Total Shots 2
11 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 0
0 Yellow Cards 1
14.09.2024 Mbabane Swallows Mbabane Swallows 0-4 HT 0-3 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns CAFŞL
POST-MATCH Mamelodi Sundowns vs Mbabane Swallows
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mamelodi Sundowns ran out comfortable winners over Mbabane Swallows 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Mamelodi Sundowns as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (61%), and that read landed as well.

What was the final score of Mamelodi Sundowns vs Mbabane Swallows?

Mamelodi Sundowns 4-0 Mbabane Swallows in the CAF Champions League on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Mbabane Swallows?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mamelodi Sundowns win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Mamelodi Sundowns 64%, draw 20%, Mbabane Swallows 15%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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