Guadalajara vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Guadalajara v Toluca — Team-Based Signals
Guadalajara vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-0
Guadalajara
MEK
Guadalajara 0-3 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca ran out comfortable winners over Guadalajara 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Guadalajara had 53% of the ball to Toluca's 47%, shots finished 18-19, expected goals 1.14 to 2.54.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Guadalajara and 0.83 for Toluca.
What was the final score of Guadalajara vs Toluca?
Guadalajara 0-3 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs Toluca?
Before kick-off our model rated an Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 32%, draw 25%, Toluca 42%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.