Louisville City 3-1 Las Vegas Lights — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 21 Sep 2025

📅21/09/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
72%
1.37
Draw
17%
4.49
Away
11%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.15
Over 2.5
55%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.96
No
52%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
22%
X/2
4%
X/X
6%
2/1
12%
2/2
4%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
71%
Home Win
69%
+2.7pp
17%
Draw
19%
-2.0pp
11%
Away Win
12%
-0.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
43%
+2.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
57%
-2.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.1pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Louisville City EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Las Vegas Lights EU Bookmakers 15%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +13%
1.98/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.68
+13% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
350 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 78%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
23.5 Crosses 13.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Louisville City
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Las Vegas Lights
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.32 xG 0.35
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 3
356 Passes 183
82% Pass Accuracy 67%
24 Box Touches 5
18 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.05.2024 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 2-2 HT 2-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
25.06.2023 Louisville City Louisville City 1-0 HT 0-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Louisville City
3-1
AWAY Las Vegas Lights
3.71 xG 0.13
58% Ball Possession 42%
26 Total Shots 3
11 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 1
350 Passes 240
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
46 Box Touches 7
34 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
FAQ Louisville City vs Las Vegas Lights
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Louisville City beat Las Vegas Lights 3-1 in the USL Championship on 21 Sep 2025. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 55% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Louisville City had 58% of the ball to Las Vegas Lights's 42%, shots finished 26-3, expected goals 3.71 to 0.13.

Across their last 2 meetings in our records, Louisville City have the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Louisville City and 1.00 for Las Vegas Lights.

What was the final score of Louisville City vs Las Vegas Lights?

Louisville City 3-1 Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Louisville City vs Las Vegas Lights?

Before kick-off our model rated a Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split Louisville City 71%, draw 17%, Las Vegas Lights 11%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Louisville City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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