Partick Thistle 2-1 Ayr United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Championship, 21 Oct 2025

📅21/10/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.72
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
3.88
6+ Goals
8%
18.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.72 — our 33% vs market 29.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.01
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.25
X/1
17%
4.8
X/2
13%
6.92
X/X
16%
4.26
2/1
12%
27.5
2/2
11%
5.3
2/X
6%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-4.0pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.3pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+4.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.9pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Partick Thistle EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Ayr United EU Bookmakers 31%
+6% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +12%
1.51/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.54
+1% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
323 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 74%
41.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
15.2 Crosses 2.0
1.2 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Partick Thistle
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Ayr United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.67 xG 0.69
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 5
219 Passes 250
63% Pass Accuracy 69%
17 Box Touches 13
16 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.08.2025 Partick Thistle Partick Thistle 2-0 HT 2-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKLK
09.05.2025 Ayr United Ayr United 0-2 HT 0-1 Partick Thistle Partick Thistle İKCL
06.05.2025 Partick Thistle Partick Thistle 0-1 HT 0-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
15.03.2025 Partick Thistle Partick Thistle 2-0 HT 2-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
25.01.2025 Ayr United Ayr United 2-1 HT 2-0 Partick Thistle Partick Thistle İKCL
07.12.2024 Partick Thistle Partick Thistle 1-0 HT 0-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
POST-MATCH Partick Thistle vs Ayr United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Partick Thistle edged past Ayr United 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Partick Thistle as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Partick Thistle had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Partick Thistle and 0.50 for Ayr United.

What was the final score of Partick Thistle vs Ayr United?

Partick Thistle 2-1 Ayr United in the Scotland - Championship on 21/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Partick Thistle vs Ayr United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Partick Thistle win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Partick Thistle 41%, draw 28%, Ayr United 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Partick Thistle) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Partick Thistle) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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