Independiente Medellin 1-1 Santa Fe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 21 Oct 2025

📅21/10/2025 · 🕒04:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.57
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
18%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
22%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
60%
+0.3pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.0pp
18%
Away Win
18%
+0.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.5pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Fe EU Bookmakers 21%
+4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +24%
1.32/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.30
-4% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -4%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
357 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 74%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
18.3 Crosses 13.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Medellin
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Santa Fe
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.70 xG 0.94
52% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
265 Passes 244
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 8
20 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
02.10.2025 Santa Fe Santa Fe 0-3 HT 0-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOLK
25.09.2025 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-2 HT 0-1 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOLK
30.06.2025 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-2 HT 1-1 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
25.06.2025 Santa Fe Santa Fe 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
15.04.2025 Santa Fe Santa Fe 1-2 HT 0-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
19.10.2024 Santa Fe Santa Fe 1-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Medellin
1-1
AWAY Santa Fe
1.91 xG 0.58
65% Ball Possession 35%
19 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 0
384 Passes 180
87% Pass Accuracy 75%
28 Box Touches 3
20 Crosses 2
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin and Santa Fe shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Independiente Medellin at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Independiente Medellin had 65% of the ball to Santa Fe's 35%, shots finished 19-4, expected goals 1.91 to 0.58.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Independiente Medellin and 1.00 for Santa Fe.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?

Independiente Medellin 1-1 Santa Fe in the Colombia - Primera on 21/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 60%, draw 22%, Santa Fe 18%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Independiente Medellin), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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