Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Fortuna Sittard v AZ Alkmaar — Team-Based Signals
Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-0
HT 1-0
Fortuna Sittard
HOL
0-3
HT 0-2
AZ Alkmaar
HOL
3-1
HT 2-1
Fortuna Sittard
HOL
Fortuna Sittard 4-3 AZ Alkmaar — Actual Match Statistics
Fortuna Sittard edged past AZ Alkmaar 4-3. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was AZ Alkmaar at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Fortuna Sittard had 34% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 66%, shots finished 15-21, expected goals 1.74 to 4.06 — on chances, AZ Alkmaar could feel hard done by.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 2.17 for AZ Alkmaar.
What was the final score of Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?
Fortuna Sittard 4-3 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 21/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?
Before kick-off our model rated an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Sittard 24%, draw 25%, AZ Alkmaar 51%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) went the other way.