St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen Prediction — Model Probabilities
St. Pauli v Werder Bremen — Team-Based Signals
St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
St. Pauli 2-1 Werder Bremen — Actual Match Statistics
St. Pauli edged past Werder Bremen 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
From a near-even 36% / 32% / 32% read, it was St. Pauli who turned the coin-flip their way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
The match data tells the story: Werder Bremen saw more of the ball, 58% to 42%, shots finished 4-13, expected goals 0.20 to 1.55 — the balance of chances actually favoured Werder Bremen.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Werder Bremen led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 0.33 a game for St. Pauli against 0.83 for Werder Bremen.
St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen Result & Final Score
St. Pauli 2 - 1 Werder Bremen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 22/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a St. Pauli win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli 36%, draw 32%, Werder Bremen 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Pauli), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.