Ekvador 2-0 Guatemala — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 22 Mar 2024

📅22/03/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.3
Draw
24%
4.81
Away
14%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.97
Over 2.5
52%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.27
No
61%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.61
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.34
6+ Goals
13%
12.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.61 — our 25% vs market 22.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
4%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
72%
-10.1pp
24%
Draw
17%
+6.4pp
14%
Away Win
10%
+3.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
47%
+1.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
53%
-1.3pp
39%
BTTS Yes
40%
-1.0pp
61%
BTTS No
60%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ekvador EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Guatemala EU Bookmakers 14%
+13% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
2.44/0.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.33/2.47
+14% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -58% / -25%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
471 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 76%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 4.0
18.3 Crosses 9.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ekvador
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Guatemala
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
6 Corners 4
12.09.2018 Ekvador Ekvador 2-0 HT 0-0 Guatemala Guatemala HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ekvador
2-0
AWAY Guatemala
0.88 xG 0.28
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
519 Passes 323
91% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Ekvador vs Guatemala
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ekvador got the better of Guatemala 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ekvador as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Ekvador had 59% of the ball to Guatemala's 41%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 0.88 to 0.28.

What was the final score of Ekvador vs Guatemala?

Ekvador 2-0 Guatemala in the Friendlies on 22/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ekvador vs Guatemala?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ekvador win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Ekvador 62%, draw 24%, Guatemala 14%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ekvador), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ekvador) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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