Venezuela 1-2 İtalya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 22 Mar 2024

📅22/03/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
5.34
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
45%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.8
Over 2.5
53%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
2.06
No
47%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.1
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.77
6+ Goals
11%
16.2
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.77 — our 26% vs market 21.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
11%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
20%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
16%
+14.1pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.5pp
45%
Away Win
62%
-16.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
44%
+8.4pp
47%
BTTS No
56%
-8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Venezuela EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY İtalya EU Bookmakers 66%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.19/2.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.37/1.30
-14% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% / +12%
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
272 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 440 · 85%
14.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
11.1 Crosses 14.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Venezuela
1-2
AWAY İtalya
2.67 xG 1.38
33% Ball Possession 67%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 10
250 Passes 559
81% Pass Accuracy 91%
12 Box Touches 36
12 Crosses 24
POST-MATCH Venezuela vs İtalya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İtalya edged past Venezuela 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had İtalya as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Venezuela had 33% of the ball to İtalya's 67%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 2.67 to 1.38 — on chances, Venezuela could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Venezuela vs İtalya?

Venezuela 1-2 İtalya in the Friendlies on 22/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Venezuela vs İtalya?

Before kick-off our model rated an İtalya win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Venezuela 30%, draw 25%, İtalya 45%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (İtalya), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (İtalya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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