St. Albans City 1-1 AFC Hornchurch — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 22 Mar 2025

📅22/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.64
Over 2.5
41%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.5
2-3 Goals
45%
1.71
4-5 Goals
15%
4.21
6+ Goals
6%
21.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.5 — our 34% vs market 32.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
17%
X/2
15%
X/X
16%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-5.6pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.0pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+3.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
57%
+1.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
43%
-1.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.9pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Albans City EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Hornchurch EU Bookmakers 31%
-18% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.46/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.33
-2% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +11%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
265 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 217 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Albans City
0W-0D-1L
AWAY AFC Hornchurch
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
64% Ball Possession 36%
12 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 0
20.08.2024 AFC Hornchurch AFC Hornchurch 1-0 HT 1-0 St. Albans City St. Albans City İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Albans City
1-1
AWAY AFC Hornchurch
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH St. Albans City vs AFC Hornchurch
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Albans City and AFC Hornchurch couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 30% / 31%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, St. Albans City had 57% of the ball to AFC Hornchurch's 43%, shots finished 17-10.

What was the final score of St. Albans City vs AFC Hornchurch?

St. Albans City 1-1 AFC Hornchurch in the England - Conference on 22/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Albans City vs AFC Hornchurch?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Albans City win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split St. Albans City 39%, draw 30%, AFC Hornchurch 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (St. Albans City), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (St. Albans City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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