Tecnico Universitario 1-2 Independiente Del Valle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 22 Mar 2026

📅22/03/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.13
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
49%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.62
Over 2.5
47%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
2.06
No
47%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
11%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
17%
2/1
4%
2/2
23%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
20%
+4.4pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.9pp
49%
Away Win
53%
-3.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
58%
-5.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
42%
+5.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
44%
+8.5pp
47%
BTTS No
56%
-8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tecnico Universitario EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 57%
-7% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
1.37/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/0.84
+4% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +50%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
259 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 78%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
24.2 Crosses 19.8
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tecnico Universitario
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.75 xG 1.55
35% Ball Possession 65%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
178 Passes 401
72% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 3
30.08.2025 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 4-0 HT 2-0 Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario EKV1
11.05.2025 Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario 1-2 HT 0-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
25.08.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-0 HT 0-0 Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario EKV1
22.03.2024 Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario 1-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
24.09.2023 Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario 2-2 HT 0-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
22.04.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-0 HT 1-0 Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tecnico Universitario
1-2
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
0.89 xG 2.86
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
221 Passes 337
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tecnico Universitario vs Independiente Del Valle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle nicked a narrow win over Tecnico Universitario 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Independiente Del Valle as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Tecnico Universitario had 41% of the ball to Independiente Del Valle's 59%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 0.89 to 2.86 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Independiente Del Valle's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Tecnico Universitario and 1.83 for Independiente Del Valle.

What was the final score of Tecnico Universitario vs Independiente Del Valle?

Tecnico Universitario 1-2 Independiente Del Valle in the Ecuador - Premier on 22/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tecnico Universitario vs Independiente Del Valle?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Tecnico Universitario 25%, draw 26%, Independiente Del Valle 49%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Del Valle), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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