Amarante 2-1 Vitoria Guimaraes II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 22 Mar 2026

📅22/03/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.33
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.51
Over 2.5
36%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.06
No
58%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
39%
+1.8pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.5pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.9pp
64%
Under 2.5
62%
+1.3pp
36%
Over 2.5
38%
-1.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.9pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amarante EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes II EU Bookmakers 34%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +14%
1.14/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/0.64
-10% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +93%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
278 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Amarante
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes II
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
7 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.11.2025 Amarante Amarante 1-2 HT 0-2 Vitoria Guimaraes II Vitoria Guimaraes II POR3
17.08.2025 Vitoria Guimaraes II Vitoria Guimaraes II 2-3 HT 1-0 Amarante Amarante POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Amarante
2-1
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes II
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 8
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Amarante vs Vitoria Guimaraes II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amarante edged past Vitoria Guimaraes II 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Amarante as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Amarante had 44% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes II's 56%, shots finished 9-10.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Amarante and 2.00 for Vitoria Guimaraes II.

What was the final score of Amarante vs Vitoria Guimaraes II?

Amarante 2-1 Vitoria Guimaraes II in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 22/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amarante vs Vitoria Guimaraes II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Amarante win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Amarante 41%, draw 28%, Vitoria Guimaraes II 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Amarante) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Amarante) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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