Bahia 4-0 Paysandu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 22 May 2025

Bahia
4-0 HT 3-0
Paysandu
📅22/05/2025 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Cup – 2025

Bahia vs Paysandu Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.57
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
24%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.78
Over 2.5
43%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.03
No
55%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.9
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.71
6+ Goals
9%
16.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.9 — our 31% vs market 27.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
6%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
60%
-12.2pp
29%
Draw
24%
+5.1pp
24%
Away Win
17%
+7.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
45%
-0.0pp
55%
BTTS No
55%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bahia v Paysandu — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Paysandu EU Bookmakers 20%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
2.00/0.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/3.56
+8% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +45% / -59%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
299 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 76%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
25.9 Crosses –
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.0

Bahia vs Paysandu Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Paysandu
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.65 xG 0.59
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 4
570 Passes 230
93% Pass Accuracy 82%
30 Box Touches 15
11 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.05.2025 Paysandu Paysandu 0-1 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BRK
14.09.2016 Paysandu Paysandu 2-1 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR2
04.06.2016 Bahia Bahia 3-0 HT 1-0 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
07.10.2015 Paysandu Paysandu 0-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR2
23.07.2015 Bahia Bahia 2-0 HT 0-0 Paysandu Paysandu BRK
16.07.2015 Paysandu Paysandu 3-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BRK

Bahia 4-0 Paysandu — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
4-0
AWAY Paysandu
2.20 xG 0.75
67% Ball Possession 33%
15 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
589 Passes 283
92% Pass Accuracy 85%
26 Box Touches 12
12 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Paysandu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia ran out comfortable winners over Paysandu 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bahia as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (55%) landed while under 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Bahia had 67% of the ball to Paysandu's 33%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 2.20 to 0.75.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bahia had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Bahia and 0.83 for Paysandu.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Paysandu?

Bahia 4-0 Paysandu in the Brazil - Cup on 22/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Paysandu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Bahia 48%, draw 29%, Paysandu 24%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bahia), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bahia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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