Keflavik 1-0 Thor Akureyri — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iceland - Urvalsdeild, 22 May 2026

📅22/05/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
64%
1.53
Draw
16%
4.34
Away
20%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under
36%
Over
64%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.43
No
38%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1
19%
2-3
35%
4-5
28%
6+
18%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
23%
X/2
7%
X/X
7%
2/1
11%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Keflavik win — 64%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
64%
Home Win
61%
+2.9pp
16%
Draw
20%
-3.5pp
20%
Away Win
19%
+0.6pp
62%
BTTS Yes
66%
-3.8pp
38%
BTTS No
34%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Keflavik The Market 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Thor Akureyri The Market 22%
-5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +10%
2.34/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.94/2.95
-2% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% / -28%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
384 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.5
Crosses 14.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Keflavik
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Thor Akureyri
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 11
25.07.2025 Keflavik Keflavik 2-2 HT 1-1 Thor Akureyri Thor Akureyri İZL1
18.05.2025 Thor Akureyri Thor Akureyri 2-4 HT 1-4 Keflavik Keflavik İZL1
31.07.2024 Keflavik Keflavik 3-2 HT 2-1 Thor Akureyri Thor Akureyri İZL1
25.05.2024 Thor Akureyri Thor Akureyri 1-1 HT 0-1 Keflavik Keflavik İZL1
12.02.2023 Thor Akureyri Thor Akureyri 4-1 HT 0-0 Keflavik Keflavik İZLK
07.09.2020 Thor Akureyri Thor Akureyri 1-3 HT 1-3 Keflavik Keflavik İZL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Keflavik
1-0
AWAY Thor Akureyri
2.35 xG 1.39
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 6
268 Passes 223
72% Pass Accuracy 69%
36 Box Touches 17
25 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Keflavik vs Thor Akureyri
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Keflavik squeezed past Thor Akureyri 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Keflavik as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Keflavik had 54% of the ball to Thor Akureyri's 46%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 2.35 to 1.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Keflavik had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Keflavik and 2.00 for Thor Akureyri.

What was the final score of Keflavik vs Thor Akureyri?

Keflavik 1-0 Thor Akureyri in the Iceland - Urvalsdeild on 22/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Keflavik vs Thor Akureyri?

Before kick-off our model rated a Keflavik win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Keflavik 64%, draw 16%, Thor Akureyri 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Keflavik) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Keflavik) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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