Racing Club Montevideo 3-0 Progreso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 22 Jun 2025

📅22/06/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.75
Over 2.5
42%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-6.4pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.3pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+5.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
53%
+4.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
47%
-4.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.4pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Racing Club Montevideo EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Progreso EU Bookmakers 29%
+7% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -16%
1.22/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.53
-16% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -20%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
296 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Racing Club Montevideo
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Progreso
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.03.2025 Progreso Progreso 0-1 HT 0-1 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
21.09.2024 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 1-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
07.07.2024 Progreso Progreso 3-2 HT 2-1 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
10.03.2024 Progreso Progreso 4-3 HT 1-1 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
14.08.2022 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 2-1 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU2
09.10.2019 Progreso Progreso 2-1 HT 2-0 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Racing Club Montevideo
3-0
AWAY Progreso
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 7
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Racing Club Montevideo vs Progreso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Racing Club Montevideo cruised past Progreso 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Racing Club Montevideo as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Racing Club Montevideo had 49% of the ball to Progreso's 51%, shots finished 17-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Racing Club Montevideo and 1.67 for Progreso.

What was the final score of Racing Club Montevideo vs Progreso?

Racing Club Montevideo 3-0 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 22/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Racing Club Montevideo vs Progreso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Racing Club Montevideo win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Racing Club Montevideo 42%, draw 28%, Progreso 30%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Racing Club Montevideo), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Racing Club Montevideo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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