Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 22 Jun 2025

📅22/06/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.56
Over 2.5
37%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.06
No
61%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.31
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
16%
4.76
6+ Goals
6%
27.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.31 — our 36% vs market 35.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-1.5pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.9pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.4pp
63%
Under 2.5
60%
+2.3pp
37%
Over 2.5
40%
-2.3pp
39%
BTTS Yes
44%
-5.0pp
61%
BTTS No
56%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pittsburgh Riverhounds EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 28%
+3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -12%
1.45/0.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.27
-3% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
328 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 76%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
21.3 Crosses 14.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pittsburgh Riverhounds
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.18 xG 1.12
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
306 Passes 348
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
15.09.2024 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-1 HT 0-1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds USLP
07.04.2024 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds 0-0 HT 0-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
08.10.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 0-2 HT 0-1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds USLP
06.08.2023 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1-0 HT 1-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
26.06.2022 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2-5 HT 1-3 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
22.05.2022 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-1 HT 1-1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pittsburgh Riverhounds
2-1
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.42 xG 0.66
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 4
260 Passes 351
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
28 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pittsburgh Riverhounds squeezed past Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Pittsburgh Riverhounds as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pittsburgh Riverhounds had 45% of the ball to Tampa Bay Rowdies's 55%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.42 to 0.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tampa Bay Rowdies led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Pittsburgh Riverhounds and 1.67 for Tampa Bay Rowdies.

What was the final score of Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship on 22/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pittsburgh Riverhounds win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Pittsburgh Riverhounds 46%, draw 27%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pittsburgh Riverhounds) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pittsburgh Riverhounds) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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