New Mexico United 4-2 San Antonio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 22 Jun 2025

📅22/06/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.82
Draw
33%
3.45
Away
25%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.8
Over 2.5
36%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.82
No
58%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
3.0
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
17%
3.59
6+ Goals
8%
14.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.0 — our 36% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
9%
1/X
10%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
51%
-8.7pp
33%
Draw
25%
+7.2pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.4pp
64%
Under 2.5
52%
+12.5pp
36%
Over 2.5
48%
-12.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
51%
-9.0pp
58%
BTTS No
49%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY San Antonio EU Bookmakers 28%
-1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +0%
1.22/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.25
-7% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +20%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
332 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 74%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
15.7 Crosses 17.8
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New Mexico United
2W-1D-3L
AWAY San Antonio
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.92 xG 1.26
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
223 Passes 198
68% Pass Accuracy 66%
16 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.06.2024 San Antonio San Antonio 2-3 HT 2-2 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
26.05.2024 New Mexico United New Mexico United 2-1 HT 2-1 San Antonio San Antonio USLP
13.08.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 0-3 HT 0-3 San Antonio San Antonio USLP
28.05.2023 San Antonio San Antonio 2-1 HT 2-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
18.09.2022 San Antonio San Antonio 1-1 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
24.04.2022 New Mexico United New Mexico United 0-1 HT 0-0 San Antonio San Antonio USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New Mexico United
4-2
AWAY San Antonio
2.43 xG 2.05
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 1
313 Passes 193
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
37 Box Touches 11
15 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH New Mexico United vs San Antonio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New Mexico United beat San Antonio 4-2. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had New Mexico United as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, New Mexico United had 59% of the ball to San Antonio's 41%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 2.43 to 2.05.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, San Antonio led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for New Mexico United and 1.67 for San Antonio.

What was the final score of New Mexico United vs San Antonio?

New Mexico United 4-2 San Antonio in the USL Championship on 22/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs San Antonio?

Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 42%, draw 33%, San Antonio 25%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New Mexico United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (New Mexico United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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