Toluca vs Pumas UNAM Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toluca v Pumas UNAM — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Pumas UNAM Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-1
Toluca
MEK
Toluca 1-2 Pumas UNAM — Actual Match Statistics
Pumas UNAM squeezed past Toluca 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Toluca at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.
On the day, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.21 to 0.66 — the balance of chances actually favoured Toluca.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Toluca and 1.00 for Pumas UNAM.
What was the final score of Toluca vs Pumas UNAM?
Toluca 1-2 Pumas UNAM in the Mexico - Primera on 22/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toluca vs Pumas UNAM?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Toluca 57%, draw 25%, Pumas UNAM 18%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Toluca) went the other way.