Pumas UNAM vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Pumas UNAM v Toluca — Team-Based Signals
Pumas UNAM vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-1
Toluca
MEK
3-1
HT 3-1
Toluca
MEK
Pumas UNAM 2-3 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca edged past Pumas UNAM 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
On the day, Pumas UNAM had 39% of the ball to Toluca's 61%, shots finished 13-25, expected goals 2.70 to 3.32.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.33 for Toluca.
What was the final score of Pumas UNAM vs Toluca?
Pumas UNAM 2-3 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 04/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Pumas UNAM vs Toluca?
Before kick-off our model rated an Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Pumas UNAM 24%, draw 26%, Toluca 50%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.