Atletico San Luis 4-1 Mazatlan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 4 Mar 2026

📅04/03/2026 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.0
Over 2.5
52%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.54
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.06
6+ Goals
11%
10.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
58%
-3.4pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.7pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+4.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.5pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico San Luis EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 21%
+12% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -5%
1.64/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.65
+43% / +67% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
327 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 76%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
17.5 Crosses 16.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico San Luis
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Mazatlan
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.39 xG 2.07
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
369 Passes 325
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 4
04.10.2025 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-1 HT 0-1 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
06.04.2025 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 2-1 HT 2-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
13.07.2024 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-2 HT 0-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
13.01.2024 Mazatlan Mazatlan 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
23.09.2023 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 3-2 HT 2-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
03.04.2023 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 2-1 HT 1-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico San Luis
4-1
AWAY Mazatlan
1.27 xG 0.36
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 0
370 Passes 280
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 8
24 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atletico San Luis vs Mazatlan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico San Luis swept aside Mazatlan 4-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atletico San Luis as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Atletico San Luis had 57% of the ball to Mazatlan's 43%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.27 to 0.36.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico San Luis had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Atletico San Luis and 1.33 for Mazatlan.

What was the final score of Atletico San Luis vs Mazatlan?

Atletico San Luis 4-1 Mazatlan in the Mexico - Primera on 04/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico San Luis vs Mazatlan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico San Luis win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Atletico San Luis 54%, draw 23%, Mazatlan 23%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico San Luis), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico San Luis) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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