Toulouse vs Lyon Prediction, Probabilities & Odds — France - Ligue 1, 22 Aug 2026

Toulouse
vs
Lyon
📅22/08/2026 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
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France - Ligue 1 – 2026/2027

Toulouse vs Lyon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
43%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
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Both Teams to Score
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Total Goals
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Half Time / Full Time
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STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Toulouse v Lyon — Team-Based Signals

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iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
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Team-Based Signals — members only
The why behind every prediction: how each side performs against the bookmaker, expected goals, attack & defence versus the league, and the on-pitch signals below.
  • Team Performance vs Market
  • Expected Goals — scored / conceded
  • Attack / Defense vs League Average
  • Possession · Total Shots · Shots on Target
  • Corners · Passes · Box Touches · Crosses · Cards
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Toulouse vs Lyon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toulouse
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Lyon
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.41 xG 1.19
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
306 Passes 437
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
23 Box Touches 29
16 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.05.2026 Toulouse Toulouse 2-1 HT 1-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
05.10.2025 Lyon Lyon 1-2 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
18.01.2025 Lyon Lyon 0-0 HT 0-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
29.09.2024 Toulouse Toulouse 1-2 HT 1-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
15.03.2024 Toulouse Toulouse 2-3 HT 0-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
10.12.2023 Lyon Lyon 3-0 HT 2-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
PREVIEW Toulouse vs Lyon
IDDAAKOLIK MATCH PREVIEW

The model tilts towards Lyon, but not by enough to write Toulouse off.

Looking at the history: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon lead the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Toulouse and 1.67 for Lyon.

Toulouse vs Lyon Kick-off Time

Toulouse play Lyon in the France - Ligue 1 on 22/08/2026, kick-off 21:45 (Istanbul · GMT+3).

Toulouse vs Lyon Match Prediction & Odds

Our model's prediction for Toulouse vs Lyon is an Lyon win at about 44% probability, priced 2.32 at EU bookmakers. The full match-result split is Toulouse 31%, draw 26%, Lyon 44%. These are probability estimates, not certainties — the most likely outcome still loses much of the time.

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