Toulouse 2-1 Lyon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 10 May 2026

Toulouse
2-1 HT 1-0
Lyon
📅10/05/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2025/2026

Toulouse vs Lyon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.46
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
48%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
2.07
Over
52%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
56%
1.61
No
44%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.82
2-3
40%
1.8
4-5
23%
3.02
6+
11%
9.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
5.85
1/2 ✗
13%
21.8
1/X
7%
14.0
X/1
10%
8.09
X/2
15%
4.59
X/X
9%
5.27
2/1
9%
34.0
2/2
20%
2.45
2/X
7%
13.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.8 — our 13% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Toulouse v Lyon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toulouse The Market 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Lyon The Market 55%
-16% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.32/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.32
-23% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +23%
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
337 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 410 · 83%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.4
17.5 Crosses 17.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1

Toulouse vs Lyon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toulouse
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Lyon
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.43 xG 1.32
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
324 Passes 455
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
24 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.10.2025 Lyon Lyon 1-2 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
18.01.2025 Lyon Lyon 0-0 HT 0-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
29.09.2024 Toulouse Toulouse 1-2 HT 1-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
15.03.2024 Toulouse Toulouse 2-3 HT 0-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
10.12.2023 Lyon Lyon 3-0 HT 2-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
14.04.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 1-2 HT 1-1 Lyon Lyon FR1

Toulouse 2-1 Lyon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toulouse
2-1
AWAY Lyon
1.14 xG 1.54
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 8
249 Passes 420
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
20 Box Touches 38
14 Crosses 29
5 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Toulouse vs Lyon
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Toulouse came out on the right side of a one-goal game with Lyon 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We leaned Lyon at 48% — softly — and the game went the other way. Slim leads do that. For what it's worth, the market was even more convinced — 1.83, about 55% — so the upset beat the price as well as us. The goals call finished the job: both teams to score (56%) landed.

On the day, Lyon saw more of the ball, 61% to 39%, shots finished 14-18, expected goals 1.14 to 1.54.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.00 a game for Toulouse against 1.83 for Lyon.

Toulouse vs Lyon Result & Final Score

Toulouse 2-1 Lyon in the France - Ligue 1 on 10/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Toulouse vs Lyon Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Toulouse 29%, draw 23%, Lyon 48%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lyon) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lyon) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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