Queretaro vs Toluca Prediction, Probabilities & Odds — Mexico - Primera, 22 Aug 2026

📅22/08/2026 · 🕒06:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
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MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.5
Draw
24%
3.64
Away Pick
53%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
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Both Teams to Score
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Total Goals
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STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Queretaro
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Toluca
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.19 xG 2.16
31% Ball Possession 69%
11 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 6
217 Passes 581
76% Pass Accuracy 89%
14 Box Touches 33
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
05.04.2026 Queretaro Queretaro 1-0 HT 0-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
19.10.2025 Toluca Toluca 4-0 HT 3-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
27.02.2025 Toluca Toluca 5-0 HT 4-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
19.10.2024 Queretaro Queretaro 0-1 HT 0-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
13.01.2024 Queretaro Queretaro 2-2 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
08.10.2023 Toluca Toluca 3-1 HT 1-1 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
PREVIEW Queretaro vs Toluca
IDDAAKOLIK MATCH PREVIEW

Toluca edge the probabilities without dominating them — the sort of game that punishes overconfidence.

Both teams have scored in 4 of Queretaro's last 5 home league games, while Toluca's away form is a worry — beaten in 4 of the last 5 in the league.

Looking at the history: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca lead the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 0.67 a game for Queretaro against 2.50 for Toluca.

Queretaro vs Toluca Kick-off Time

Queretaro play Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 22/08/2026, kick-off 06:10 (Istanbul · GMT+3).

Queretaro vs Toluca Match Prediction & Odds

Our model's prediction for Queretaro vs Toluca is an Toluca win at about 53% probability, priced 1.79 at EU bookmakers. The full match-result split is Queretaro 23%, draw 23%, Toluca 53%. These are probability estimates, not certainties — the most likely outcome still loses much of the time.

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