Queretaro vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Queretaro v Toluca — Team-Based Signals
Queretaro vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Toluca edge the probabilities without dominating them — the sort of game that punishes overconfidence.
Both teams have scored in 4 of Queretaro's last 5 home league games, while Toluca's away form is a worry — beaten in 4 of the last 5 in the league.
Looking at the history: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca lead the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 0.67 a game for Queretaro against 2.50 for Toluca.
Queretaro vs Toluca Kick-off Time
Queretaro play Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 22/08/2026, kick-off 06:10 (Istanbul · GMT+3).
Queretaro vs Toluca Match Prediction & Odds
Our model's prediction for Queretaro vs Toluca is an Toluca win at about 53% probability, priced 1.79 at EU bookmakers. The full match-result split is Queretaro 23%, draw 23%, Toluca 53%. These are probability estimates, not certainties — the most likely outcome still loses much of the time.