New Mexico United 1-0 Loudoun United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 22 Sep 2024

New Mexico United
1-0 HT 1-0
Loudoun United
📅22/09/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
USL Championship – 2024

New Mexico United vs Loudoun United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
1.91
Over Pick
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.67
No
50%
2.07
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.48
2-3
37%
1.8
4-5 ✗
27%
3.43
6+
10%
12.9
Value flag · 4-5 at 3.43 — our 27% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
18%
X/2
15%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

New Mexico United v Loudoun United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New Mexico United The Market 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Loudoun United The Market 32%
+0% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -29% / -29%
1.29/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.79
+3% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -37%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
363 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 77%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
15.4 Crosses 18.5
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.6

New Mexico United vs Loudoun United Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New Mexico United
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Loudoun United
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.14 xG 1.48
46% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
297 Passes 355
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.05.2023 Loudoun United Loudoun United 1-3 HT 0-1 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
30.05.2021 New Mexico United New Mexico United 0-1 HT 0-1 Loudoun United Loudoun United USLP

New Mexico United 1-0 Loudoun United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New Mexico United
1-0
AWAY Loudoun United
1.77 xG 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
414 Passes 452
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
29 Box Touches 20
11 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 5
REVIEW New Mexico United vs Loudoun United
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

New Mexico United found just enough to beat Loudoun United 1-0.

The way our numbers pointed is the way it went: our model had New Mexico United as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 50%, coin-flips both. If anything the market was more convinced: the BTTS-yes price stood at 1.67, roughly 60%.

By the numbers, New Mexico United had 48% of the ball to Loudoun United's 52%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.77 to 1.00.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for New Mexico United and 1.00 for Loudoun United.

New Mexico United vs Loudoun United Result & Final Score

New Mexico United 1-0 Loudoun United in the USL Championship on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

New Mexico United vs Loudoun United Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 45%, draw 26%, Loudoun United 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New Mexico United) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (New Mexico United)
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