Macara 1-1 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 22 Sep 2025

📅22/09/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
33%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.74
Over 2.5
48%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
7%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
-7.5pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.8pp
33%
Away Win
24%
+9.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
54%
-1.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
46%
+1.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.2pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macara EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -2%
1.30/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.32
-36% / +72% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
336 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 72%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
23.5 Crosses 15.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macara
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Libertad
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.10 xG 0.48
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
216 Passes 233
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 17
8 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.05.2025 Libertad Libertad 0-1 HT 0-0 Macara Macara EKV1
17.08.2024 Libertad Libertad 0-1 HT 0-0 Macara Macara EKV1
16.03.2024 Macara Macara 3-0 HT 2-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macara
1-1
AWAY Libertad
0.84 xG 0.99
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 12
287 Passes 216
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
11 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 33
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Macara vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macara and Libertad shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Macara at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Macara had 53% of the ball to Libertad's 47%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 0.84 to 0.99.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Macara had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Macara and 0.00 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Macara vs Libertad?

Macara 1-1 Libertad in the Ecuador - Premier on 22/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macara vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Macara win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Macara 42%, draw 25%, Libertad 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Macara) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Macara) ✓ Under 2.5
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