Arsenal vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Arsenal v Shakhtar Donetsk — Team-Based Signals
Arsenal vs Shakhtar Donetsk Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
2-1
HT 2-1
Arsenal
ŞMP
5-1
HT 2-0
Shakhtar Donetsk
ŞMP
Arsenal 1-0 Shakhtar Donetsk — Actual Match Statistics
Arsenal edged past Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Arsenal had 56% of the ball to Shakhtar Donetsk's 44%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.82 to 0.70.
For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Arsenal and 1.50 for Shakhtar Donetsk.
What was the final score of Arsenal vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Arsenal 1-0 Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 60%, draw 21%, Shakhtar Donetsk 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.