Real Madrid 5-2 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 22 Oct 2024

Real Madrid
5-2 HT 0-2
Borussia Dortmund
📅22/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Champions League – 2024/2025

Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.43
Draw
24%
4.49
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under
42%
2.96
Over Pick
58%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1
22%
6.95
2-3
39%
2.19
4-5
25%
2.47
6+
14%
4.87
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.67
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.3
X/1
11%
3.94
X/2
6%
14.15
X/X
11%
8.14
2/1 ✓
8%
18.5
2/2
11%
9.18
2/X
6%
17.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.5 — our 8% vs market 2.8%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 58% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
54%
Home Win
65%
-11.4pp
24%
Draw
19%
+4.9pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+6.6pp
42%
Under 2.5
30%
+11.9pp
58%
Over 2.5
70%
-11.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.0pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid The Market 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund The Market 19%
+6% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
2.34/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/2.18
+5% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +50%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
519 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 80%
36.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
20.7 Crosses 14.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.35 xG 1.71
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
486 Passes 455
87% Pass Accuracy 86%
31 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.06.2024 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 0-2 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid ŞMP
06.12.2017 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-2 HT 2-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund ŞMP
26.09.2017 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-3 HT 0-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid ŞMP
07.12.2016 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-2 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund ŞMP
27.09.2016 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-2 HT 1-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid ŞMP
08.04.2014 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-0 HT 2-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid ŞMP

Real Madrid 5-2 Borussia Dortmund — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
5-2
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
3.55 xG 1.58
51% Ball Possession 49%
26 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 7
11 Corners 4
467 Passes 441
91% Pass Accuracy 88%
49 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid cruised past Borussia Dortmund 5-2. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Real Madrid had 51% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 49%, shots finished 26-8, expected goals 3.55 to 1.58.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Real Madrid and 1.50 for Borussia Dortmund.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund?

Real Madrid 5-2 Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 54%, draw 24%, Borussia Dortmund 22%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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