Sturm Graz 0-2 Sporting CP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 22 Oct 2024

📅22/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
5.4
Draw
27%
4.34
Away
46%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
2.33
Over Pick
51%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1
26%
4.96
2-3
43%
1.95
4-5
20%
2.77
6+
11%
7.34
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
10.4
1/2
7%
20.85
1/X
6%
17.9
X/1
11%
14.25
X/2
20%
3.76
X/X
11%
6.89
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
20%
1.71
2/X
9%
17.4
Value flag · X/1 at 14.25 — our 11% vs market 4.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
27%
Home Win
15%
+11.6pp
27%
Draw
19%
+7.3pp
47%
Away Win
66%
-18.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
39%
+9.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
61%
-9.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.5pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz The Market 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP The Market 70%
-31% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -56% / -56%
0.11/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.07/1.00
-88% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -96% / -11%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
264 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 436 · 83%
16.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.1 Crosses
4.8 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Sporting CP
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.44 xG 1.66
34% Ball Possession 66%
6 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
200 Passes 496
66% Pass Accuracy 84%
8 Box Touches 28
9 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 0
14.12.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-0 HT 1-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVL
21.09.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-2 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
0-2
AWAY Sporting CP
0.75 xG 1.45
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
309 Passes 490
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
22 Box Touches 30
19 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Sporting CP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP got the better of Sturm Graz 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 40% of the ball to Sporting CP's 60%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 0.75 to 1.45.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Sporting CP led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sturm Graz and 2.50 for Sporting CP.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Sporting CP?

Sturm Graz 0-2 Sporting CP in the Champions League on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Sporting CP?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 27%, draw 27%, Sporting CP 47%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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