PSG 1-1 PSV Eindhoven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 22 Oct 2024

📅22/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.34
Draw
22%
4.81
Away
21%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under
38%
2.96
Over Pick
62%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.63
No
42%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1
19%
6.9
2-3
36%
2.18
4-5
31%
2.47
6+
14%
4.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.53
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
19.9
X/1
18%
3.77
X/2
4%
17.4
X/X
9%
8.83
2/1
10%
19.1
2/2
12%
11.6
2/X
6%
19.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.1 — our 10% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
58%
Home Win
70%
-12.4pp
22%
Draw
18%
+4.3pp
21%
Away Win
13%
+8.1pp
38%
Under 2.5
30%
+7.9pp
62%
Over 2.5
70%
-7.9pp
58%
BTTS Yes
57%
+0.5pp
42%
BTTS No
43%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSG The Market 75%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV Eindhoven The Market 16%
-5% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -8%
2.61/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/2.67
-3% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -21%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
483 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 76%
39.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
20.1 Crosses 18.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSG
1-1
AWAY PSV Eindhoven
2.57 xG 0.25
61% Ball Possession 39%
26 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
14 Corners 3
515 Passes 314
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
42 Box Touches 11
32 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH PSG vs PSV Eindhoven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSG and PSV Eindhoven couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had PSG at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, both teams to score (58%) landed while over 2.5 goals (62%) missed.

On the day, PSG had 61% of the ball to PSV Eindhoven's 39%, shots finished 26-8, expected goals 2.57 to 0.25.

What was the final score of PSG vs PSV Eindhoven?

PSG 1-1 PSV Eindhoven in the Champions League on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSG vs PSV Eindhoven?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split PSG 58%, draw 22%, PSV Eindhoven 21%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (PSG), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (PSG) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ŞMP More Champions League
22 Oct 2024
19:45 Milan vs Club Brugge Analysis →
19:45 Monaco vs Kızılyıldız Analysis →
22:00 Girona vs Slovan Bratislava Analysis →
22:00 Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Analysis →
22:00 Sturm Graz vs Sporting CP Analysis →
22:00 Juventus vs Stuttgart Analysis →