Monterrey 4-2 FC Juarez — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 22 Oct 2025

📅22/10/2025 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.53
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
18%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.18
Over 2.5
48%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.04
2-3 Goals
43%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
2.87
6+ Goals
8%
8.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.04 — our 28% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
61%
-1.0pp
22%
Draw
22%
+0.5pp
18%
Away Win
18%
+0.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
42%
+10.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
58%
-10.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.8pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterrey EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 21%
-2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +17%
1.92/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.40
+6% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +15%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
327 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 77%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
20.7 Crosses 17.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterrey
5W-0D-1L
AWAY FC Juarez
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.96 xG 1.11
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
383 Passes 299
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.02.2025 FC Juarez FC Juarez 2-1 HT 1-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
19.09.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 3-2 HT 1-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
24.02.2024 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-3 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
08.10.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 3-1 HT 2-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
05.03.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 3-0 HT 1-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
10.09.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-1 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterrey
4-2
AWAY FC Juarez
1.63 xG 1.18
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
472 Passes 303
90% Pass Accuracy 89%
30 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Monterrey vs FC Juarez
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterrey beat FC Juarez 4-2. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Monterrey as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Monterrey had 60% of the ball to FC Juarez's 40%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 1.63 to 1.18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterrey had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Monterrey and 0.83 for FC Juarez.

What was the final score of Monterrey vs FC Juarez?

Monterrey 4-2 FC Juarez in the Mexico - Primera on 22/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterrey vs FC Juarez?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monterrey win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Monterrey 60%, draw 22%, FC Juarez 18%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monterrey) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monterrey) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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