Independiente Del Valle 1-0 Barcelona SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 22 Dec 2025

📅22/12/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.9
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
23%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.78
Over 2.5
48%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
49%
+5.8pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.7pp
23%
Away Win
26%
-3.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.5pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona SC EU Bookmakers 29%
+2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +24%
1.28/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.45
+12% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +23%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
345 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 76%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
18.8 Crosses 15.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Del Valle
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Barcelona SC
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.31 xG 0.84
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
402 Passes 250
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
06.10.2025 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 0-3 HT 0-3 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
06.07.2025 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-1 HT 0-0 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC EKV1
28.05.2025 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-1 HT 0-1 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC LKU
02.04.2025 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 1-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle LKU
09.03.2025 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 0-4 HT 0-2 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
11.08.2024 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 3-2 HT 3-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Del Valle
1-0
AWAY Barcelona SC
1.36 xG 0.51
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 0
345 Passes 217
88% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Independiente Del Valle vs Barcelona SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle squeezed past Barcelona SC 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Independiente Del Valle as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Independiente Del Valle had 59% of the ball to Barcelona SC's 41%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.36 to 0.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Independiente Del Valle and 1.00 for Barcelona SC.

What was the final score of Independiente Del Valle vs Barcelona SC?

Independiente Del Valle 1-0 Barcelona SC in the Ecuador - Premier on 22/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Del Valle vs Barcelona SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Independiente Del Valle 55%, draw 23%, Barcelona SC 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Del Valle), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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