Orense vs Libertad Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Orense v Libertad — Team-Based Signals
Orense vs Libertad Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-0
HT 1-0
Libertad
EKV1
Orense 3-2 Libertad — Actual Match Statistics
Orense squeezed past Libertad 3-2. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Orense as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Orense had 50% of the ball to Libertad's 50%, shots finished 34-9, expected goals 3.83 to 1.45 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Orense's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Libertad led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Orense and 1.33 for Libertad.
What was the final score of Orense vs Libertad?
Orense 3-2 Libertad in the Ecuador - Premier on 22/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Orense vs Libertad?
Before kick-off our model rated a Orense win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Orense 43%, draw 26%, Libertad 31%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.