AZ Alkmaar vs Roma Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
AZ Alkmaar v Roma — Team-Based Signals
AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Roma — Actual Match Statistics
AZ Alkmaar squeezed past Roma 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 29% / 40% — and on the day AZ Alkmaar made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (61%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 36% of the ball to Roma's 64%, shots finished 7-11, expected goals 1.08 to 0.74.
What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Roma?
AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Roma in the UEFA Europa League on 23/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Roma?
Before kick-off our model rated an Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 31%, draw 29%, Roma 40%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.