AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Roma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 23 Jan 2025

📅23/01/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.29
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
40%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
1.9
Over
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
61%
1.7
No
39%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1
21%
3.3
2-3
44%
1.77
4-5
25%
3.37
6+
10%
12.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.38
1/2
8%
24.7
1/X
10%
13.1
X/1
13%
7.44
X/2
14%
4.91
X/X
11%
4.58
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.8
2/X
7%
12.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 8% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
31%
Home Win
27%
+3.8pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.3pp
40%
Away Win
46%
-5.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.9pp
61%
BTTS Yes
55%
+6.5pp
39%
BTTS No
45%
-6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar The Market 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma The Market 49%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
2.12/2.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/0.94
+34% / +68% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +20%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
308 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 423 · 82%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
13.2 Crosses 14.7
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar
1-0
AWAY Roma
1.08 xG 0.74
36% Ball Possession 64%
7 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
288 Passes 576
78% Pass Accuracy 89%
24 Box Touches 34
14 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar vs Roma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar squeezed past Roma 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 29% / 40% — and on the day AZ Alkmaar made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 36% of the ball to Roma's 64%, shots finished 7-11, expected goals 1.08 to 0.74.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Roma?

AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Roma in the UEFA Europa League on 23/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Roma?

Before kick-off our model rated an Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 31%, draw 29%, Roma 40%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Roma) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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