Malmö FF 2-3 Twente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 23 Jan 2025

Malmö FF
2-3 HT 1-1
Twente
📅23/01/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
UEFA Europa League – 2024/2025

Malmö FF vs Twente Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.57
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
37%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.15
Over Pick
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.53
No
50%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1
24%
4.1
2-3
44%
1.84
4-5
20%
2.91
6+
12%
8.76
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.96
1/2
6%
25.0
1/X
6%
11.5
X/1
13%
6.5
X/2
15%
5.93
X/X
14%
4.86
2/1 ✗
8%
27.0
2/2
15%
3.43
2/X
4%
11.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.0 — our 8% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 53% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
39%
Home Win
35%
+4.6pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.4pp
36%
Away Win
38%
-1.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
61%
-10.7pp
50%
BTTS No
39%
+10.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Malmö FF v Twente — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Malmö FF The Market 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Twente The Market 42%
-31% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
0.35/1.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.84/1.59
-73% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -23%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
354 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 79%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
20.5 Crosses –
2.5 Yellow Cards –

Malmö FF 2-3 Twente — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Malmö FF
2-3
AWAY Twente
0.95 xG 2.11
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 7
380 Passes 287
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
29 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 22
6 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Malmö FF vs Twente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Twente squeezed past Malmö FF 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 24% / 36%) promised a tight game; Twente found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Malmö FF had 56% of the ball to Twente's 44%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 0.95 to 2.11.

What was the final score of Malmö FF vs Twente?

Malmö FF 2-3 Twente in the UEFA Europa League on 23/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Malmö FF vs Twente?

Before kick-off our model rated a Malmö FF win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Malmö FF 39%, draw 24%, Twente 36%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Malmö FF) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Malmö FF) ✓ Over 2.5
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