Karabağ 2-3 FCSB — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 23 Jan 2025

📅23/01/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
51%
1.95
Over
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.48
2-3
39%
1.78
4-5
24%
3.24
6+
11%
11.55
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.48 — our 26% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.85
1/2
5%
33.5
1/X
6%
12.15
X/1
19%
5.02
X/2
11%
7.32
X/X
15%
4.69
2/1
6%
24.3
2/2
17%
5.14
2/X
5%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.5pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.1pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+5.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.1pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ The Market 50%
Head to Head
AWAY FCSB The Market 31%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +16%
1.29/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.53/1.35
-25% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +41%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
376 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 75%
39.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
22.1 Crosses 11.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 4.1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Karabağ
2-3
AWAY FCSB
64% Ball Possession 36%
9 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
383 Passes 191
82% Pass Accuracy 70%
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs FCSB
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FCSB squeezed past Karabağ 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Karabağ at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Karabağ had 64% of the ball to FCSB's 36%, shots finished 9-10.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs FCSB?

Karabağ 2-3 FCSB in the UEFA Europa League on 23/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs FCSB?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 41%, draw 26%, FCSB 33%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Karabağ), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Karabağ) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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