Porto 0-1 Olympiakos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 23 Jan 2025

📅23/01/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
1.82
Over
50%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No Pick
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1
28%
3.13
2-3
38%
1.75
4-5
23%
3.51
6+
11%
14.1
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.13 — our 28% vs market 25.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.21
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.5
X/1
17%
4.3
X/2
14%
9.8
X/X
11%
4.72
2/1
8%
24.7
2/2
7%
7.95
2/X
6%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
49%
Home Win
54%
-4.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.4pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+5.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
51%
-1.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
49%
+1.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.4pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto The Market 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Olympiakos The Market 23%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -13%
1.52/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.48
-10% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / -15%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
377 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 70%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
20.2 Crosses 13.9
3.3 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Olympiakos
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.24 xG 1.04
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
316 Passes 422
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 14
12 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.12.2020 Olympiakos Olympiakos 0-2 HT 0-1 Porto Porto ŞMP
27.10.2020 Porto Porto 2-0 HT 1-0 Olympiakos Olympiakos ŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto
0-1
AWAY Olympiakos
1.14 xG 0.46
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 2
375 Passes 241
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
32 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Porto vs Olympiakos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Olympiakos squeezed past Porto 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Porto at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Porto had 58% of the ball to Olympiakos's 42%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.14 to 0.46 — the balance of chances actually favoured Porto.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Porto had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Porto and 0.00 for Olympiakos.

What was the final score of Porto vs Olympiakos?

Porto 0-1 Olympiakos in the UEFA Europa League on 23/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto vs Olympiakos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Porto 49%, draw 25%, Olympiakos 26%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Porto) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Porto) ✓ BTTS No
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