Elfsborg 1-0 Nice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 23 Jan 2025

📅23/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.47
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
28%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
2.15
Over
44%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.55
No
51%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1
28%
4.07
2-3
42%
1.84
4-5
21%
2.92
6+
9%
8.85
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.07 — our 28% vs market 18.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.7
1/2
7%
25.0
1/X
8%
12.05
X/1
14%
6.07
X/2
11%
5.93
X/X
13%
5.07
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
10%
3.57
2/X
7%
12.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
44%
Home Win
37%
+6.9pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.3pp
28%
Away Win
36%
-8.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
43%
+12.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
57%
-12.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.7pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Elfsborg The Market 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Nice The Market 40%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -29% / -29%
1.52/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.66
-57% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -75% / +29%
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
282 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 436 · 83%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.0
6.0 Crosses 21.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Elfsborg
1-0
AWAY Nice
0.68 xG 1.70
32% Ball Possession 68%
9 Total Shots 22
1 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 9
214 Passes 558
73% Pass Accuracy 89%
12 Box Touches 51
8 Crosses 33
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Elfsborg vs Nice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Elfsborg squeezed past Nice 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Elfsborg as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Elfsborg had 32% of the ball to Nice's 68%, shots finished 9-22, expected goals 0.68 to 1.70 — the balance of chances actually favoured Nice.

What was the final score of Elfsborg vs Nice?

Elfsborg 1-0 Nice in the UEFA Europa League on 23/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Elfsborg vs Nice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Elfsborg win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Elfsborg 44%, draw 28%, Nice 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Elfsborg), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Elfsborg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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