Lazio 3-1 Real Sociedad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 23 Jan 2025

📅23/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.33
Draw
32%
2.94
Away
27%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.62
Over
42%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2.49
2-3
43%
1.74
4-5
16%
4.42
6+
10%
23.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.51
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.05
X/1
12%
5.16
X/2
10%
6.18
X/X
19%
3.84
2/1
12%
31.0
2/2
12%
4.65
2/X
7%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
41%
Home Win
39%
+1.5pp
32%
Draw
30%
+1.8pp
27%
Away Win
30%
-3.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
58%
-0.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
42%
+0.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lazio The Market 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Sociedad The Market 34%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
1.65/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.58
+90% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / -8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
358 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 78%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
18.7 Crosses 15.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lazio
3-1
AWAY Real Sociedad
1.53 xG 1.16
77% Ball Possession 23%
19 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
782 Passes 165
94% Pass Accuracy 69%
42 Box Touches 11
20 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lazio vs Real Sociedad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lazio saw off Real Sociedad 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lazio as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lazio had 77% of the ball to Real Sociedad's 23%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 1.53 to 1.16.

What was the final score of Lazio vs Real Sociedad?

Lazio 3-1 Real Sociedad in the UEFA Europa League on 23/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lazio vs Real Sociedad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lazio win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Lazio 41%, draw 32%, Real Sociedad 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lazio) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lazio) ✗ Under 2.5
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