Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 Sporting Braga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 23 Jan 2025

📅23/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.82
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
2.03
Over
56%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
58%
1.66
No
42%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1
20%
3.76
2-3
44%
1.8
4-5
26%
3.06
6+
10%
10.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.39
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
12.75
X/1
14%
4.6
X/2
10%
8.65
X/X
8%
5.14
2/1
10%
22.55
2/2
9%
6.38
2/X
12%
13.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.55 — our 10% vs market 2.2%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
47%
Home Win
51%
-3.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
45%
-1.0pp
56%
Over 2.5
55%
+1.0pp
58%
BTTS Yes
56%
+1.5pp
42%
BTTS No
44%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise The Market 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga The Market 27%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -16%
2.41/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/2.09
-29% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -45%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
355 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 77%
40.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
20.3 Crosses 12.3
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Sporting Braga
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.57 xG 1.30
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 3
282 Passes 398
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.10.2022 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 3-3 HT 1-3 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga AVL
06.10.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-2 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
2-1
AWAY Sporting Braga
0.84 xG 1.76
56% Ball Possession 44%
6 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 0
338 Passes 244
72% Pass Accuracy 65%
15 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 10
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Union Saint-Gilloise vs Sporting Braga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise squeezed past Sporting Braga 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Union Saint-Gilloise as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Union Saint-Gilloise had 56% of the ball to Sporting Braga's 44%, shots finished 6-8, expected goals 0.84 to 1.76 — the balance of chances actually favoured Sporting Braga.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Union Saint-Gilloise and 2.00 for Sporting Braga.

What was the final score of Union Saint-Gilloise vs Sporting Braga?

Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 Sporting Braga in the UEFA Europa League on 23/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Saint-Gilloise vs Sporting Braga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Union Saint-Gilloise 47%, draw 26%, Sporting Braga 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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