De Graafschap 2-4 RKC Waalwijk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 23 Jan 2026

📅23/01/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
36%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.63
Over 2.5
61%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.39
No
38%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.87
2-3 Goals
36%
2.05
4-5 Goals
29%
2.48
6+ Goals
14%
5.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.93
1/2
9%
25.5
1/X
5%
12.5
X/1
13%
5.66
X/2
15%
7.05
X/X
11%
6.39
2/1
7%
20.9
2/2
12%
4.1
2/X
7%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-2.2pp
22%
Draw
23%
-0.9pp
36%
Away Win
33%
+3.2pp
39%
Under 2.5
34%
+4.4pp
61%
Over 2.5
66%
-4.4pp
62%
BTTS Yes
68%
-6.0pp
38%
BTTS No
32%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 37%
+1% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +2%
1.69/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.78/1.12
-2% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
338 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.0
24.2 Crosses 18.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
4W-1D-1L
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.07 xG 2.34
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
327 Passes 382
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2025 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 1-4 HT 0-3 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
30.03.2018 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-0 HT 0-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL2
02.09.2017 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 0-0 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
07.04.2017 De Graafschap De Graafschap 4-0 HT 3-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL2
25.11.2016 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-1 HT 2-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
09.02.2015 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 0-5 HT 0-3 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
2-4
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
1.63 xG 1.49
70% Ball Possession 30%
7 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
503 Passes 172
86% Pass Accuracy 69%
19 Box Touches 13
14 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RKC Waalwijk saw off De Graafschap 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was De Graafschap at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (62%) came in.

On the day, De Graafschap had 70% of the ball to RKC Waalwijk's 30%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 1.63 to 1.49.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for De Graafschap and 0.50 for RKC Waalwijk.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk?

De Graafschap 2-4 RKC Waalwijk in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 23/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 42%, draw 22%, RKC Waalwijk 36%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (De Graafschap) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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