Willem II 2-1 VVV-Venlo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 23 Jan 2026

📅23/01/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.86
Draw
19%
3.64
Away
23%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.43
Over 2.5
56%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.49
No
44%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.99
2-3 Goals
38%
1.95
4-5 Goals
27%
2.63
6+ Goals
12%
6.49
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.46
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
5%
12.7
X/1 EV+ ✗
21%
4.97
X/2
9%
8.4
X/X
7%
6.04
2/1
6%
20.5
2/2
9%
5.51
2/X
7%
13.5
Value flag · X/1 at 4.97 — our 21% vs market 16.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
50%
+7.7pp
19%
Draw
24%
-5.5pp
24%
Away Win
26%
-2.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+7.0pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-7.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
63%
-7.5pp
44%
BTTS No
37%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Willem II EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY VVV-Venlo EU Bookmakers 29%
+9% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.78/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.66
-8% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +24%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
340 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 78%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
20.6 Crosses 17.6
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Willem II
4W-1D-1L
AWAY VVV-Venlo
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.42 xG 0.90
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
393 Passes 392
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.11.2025 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 0-2 HT 0-1 Willem II Willem II HOL2
23.03.2024 Willem II Willem II 2-0 HT 1-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
17.11.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 1-3 HT 0-0 Willem II Willem II HOL2
27.05.2023 Willem II Willem II 2-2 HT 2-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
23.05.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 3-2 HT 2-2 Willem II Willem II HOL2
09.04.2023 Willem II Willem II 2-1 HT 1-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Willem II
2-1
AWAY VVV-Venlo
2.48 xG 0.97
48% Ball Possession 52%
25 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
335 Passes 349
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
38 Box Touches 14
27 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Willem II vs VVV-Venlo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Willem II nicked a narrow win over VVV-Venlo 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Willem II as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Willem II had 48% of the ball to VVV-Venlo's 52%, shots finished 25-8, expected goals 2.48 to 0.97 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Willem II's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Willem II had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Willem II and 1.17 for VVV-Venlo.

What was the final score of Willem II vs VVV-Venlo?

Willem II 2-1 VVV-Venlo in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 23/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Willem II vs VVV-Venlo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Willem II win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Willem II 58%, draw 19%, VVV-Venlo 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Willem II), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Willem II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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