Matagalpa 1-1 Real Esteli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nikaragua - Premier League, 23 Feb 2026

📅23/02/2026 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.87
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
53%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
29%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
22%
+1.1pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.8pp
53%
Away Win
53%
-0.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.5pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matagalpa EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Esteli EU Bookmakers 57%
+25% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +0%
1.57/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.20
+45% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -8%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
248 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matagalpa
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Real Esteli
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
24.11.2025 Matagalpa Matagalpa 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Esteli Real Esteli NİK
14.09.2025 Real Esteli Real Esteli 2-1 HT 1-1 Matagalpa Matagalpa NİK
26.01.2025 Real Esteli Real Esteli 2-0 HT 2-0 Matagalpa Matagalpa NİK
28.10.2024 Matagalpa Matagalpa 4-1 HT 1-0 Real Esteli Real Esteli NİK
18.08.2024 Real Esteli Real Esteli 1-1 HT 1-0 Matagalpa Matagalpa NİK
15.03.2024 Matagalpa Matagalpa 0-0 HT 0-0 Real Esteli Real Esteli NİK
POST-MATCH Matagalpa vs Real Esteli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matagalpa and Real Esteli couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Real Esteli at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Matagalpa and 1.00 for Real Esteli.

What was the final score of Matagalpa vs Real Esteli?

Matagalpa 1-1 Real Esteli in the Nikaragua - Premier League on 23/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matagalpa vs Real Esteli?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Esteli win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Matagalpa 23%, draw 24%, Real Esteli 53%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Real Esteli), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Esteli) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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