İspanya 3-3 Hollanda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 23 Mar 2025

📅23/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.1
Over 2.5
45%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.68
No
55%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.91
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
19%
2.99
6+ Goals
13%
9.41
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.91 — our 29% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.13
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.65
X/1
14%
4.35
X/2
9%
9.76
X/X
13%
5.54
2/1
5%
21.45
2/2
11%
7.39
2/X
5%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
56%
-7.1pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.6pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+5.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
44%
+10.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
56%
-10.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.9pp
55%
BTTS No
44%
+10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İspanya EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Hollanda EU Bookmakers 24%
-35% / -35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
0.87/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.24
-43% / -42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -80% / +53%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
459 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 79%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
17.7 Crosses 26.0
0.3 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İspanya
0W-3D-2L
AWAY Hollanda
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.38 xG 0.70
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
532 Passes 316
88% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.03.2025 Hollanda Hollanda 2-2 HT 1-1 İspanya İspanya AVUL
11.11.2020 Hollanda Hollanda 1-1 HT 0-1 İspanya İspanya HAZ
31.03.2015 Hollanda Hollanda 2-0 HT 2-0 İspanya İspanya HAZ
13.06.2014 İspanya İspanya 1-5 HT 1-1 Hollanda Hollanda DK
11.07.2010 Hollanda Hollanda 0-0 HT 0-0 İspanya İspanya DK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İspanya
3-3
AWAY Hollanda
3.19 xG 2.79
54% Ball Possession 46%
19 Total Shots 16
9 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 2
632 Passes 526
88% Pass Accuracy 88%
42 Box Touches 33
10 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH İspanya vs Hollanda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İspanya and Hollanda couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was İspanya at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, İspanya had 54% of the ball to Hollanda's 46%, shots finished 19-16, expected goals 3.19 to 2.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Hollanda led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for İspanya and 2.00 for Hollanda.

What was the final score of İspanya vs Hollanda?

İspanya 3-3 Hollanda in the UEFA Uluslar League on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İspanya vs Hollanda?

Before kick-off our model rated a İspanya win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split İspanya 49%, draw 25%, Hollanda 26%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (İspanya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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