Gürcistan 6-1 Ermenistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 23 Mar 2025

📅23/03/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.45
Draw
26%
4.19
Away
20%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.49
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.23
6+ Goals
10%
11.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 28% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.75
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.3
X/1
20%
3.83
X/2
7%
13.55
X/X
12%
5.94
2/1
9%
23.0
2/2
8%
11.75
2/X
7%
20.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
65%
-11.0pp
26%
Draw
21%
+5.1pp
20%
Away Win
14%
+5.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.9pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gürcistan EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Ermenistan EU Bookmakers 17%
-46% / -46% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.29/0.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.21
-100% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -10%
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
444 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 74%
31.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
24.9 Crosses 15.1
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gürcistan
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Ermenistan
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
1.72 xG 1.16
63% Ball Possession 37%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
509 Passes 263
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
27 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.03.2025 Ermenistan Ermenistan 0-3 HT 0-2 Gürcistan Gürcistan AVUL
15.11.2020 Gürcistan Gürcistan 1-2 HT 0-1 Ermenistan Ermenistan AVUL
11.10.2020 Ermenistan Ermenistan 2-2 HT 1-0 Gürcistan Gürcistan AVUL
09.02.2011 Ermenistan Ermenistan 1-2 HT 0-2 Gürcistan Gürcistan HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gürcistan
6-1
AWAY Ermenistan
2.08 xG 0.51
65% Ball Possession 35%
16 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
586 Passes 280
88% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 11
12 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gürcistan vs Ermenistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gürcistan cruised past Ermenistan 6-1. Half-time: 5-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Gürcistan as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 6-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Gürcistan had 65% of the ball to Ermenistan's 35%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 2.08 to 0.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Gürcistan had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Gürcistan and 1.25 for Ermenistan.

What was the final score of Gürcistan vs Ermenistan?

Gürcistan 6-1 Ermenistan in the UEFA Uluslar League on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gürcistan vs Ermenistan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gürcistan win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Gürcistan 54%, draw 26%, Ermenistan 20%. The final score 6-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gürcistan) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gürcistan) ✗ BTTS No
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