Almanya vs İtalya Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Almanya v İtalya — Team-Based Signals
Almanya vs İtalya Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
5-2
HT 2-0
İtalya
AVUL
1-1
HT 0-0
Almanya
AVUL
0-0
HT 0-0
Almanya
HAZ
4-1
HT 2-0
İtalya
HAZ
1-1
HT 1-1
Almanya
HAZ
Almanya 3-3 İtalya — Actual Match Statistics
Almanya and İtalya shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 3-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was Almanya at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Almanya had 57% of the ball to İtalya's 43%, shots finished 22-9, expected goals 3.50 to 1.38.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Almanya had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Almanya and 1.00 for İtalya.
What was the final score of Almanya vs İtalya?
Almanya 3-3 İtalya in the UEFA Uluslar League on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Almanya vs İtalya?
Before kick-off our model rated a Almanya win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Almanya 51%, draw 28%, İtalya 22%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.