Portekiz 5-2 Danimarka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 23 Mar 2025

📅23/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.57
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
19%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.0
Over 2.5
52%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.62
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.14
6+ Goals
11%
10.75
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.14 — our 28% vs market 25.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.93
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.2
X/1
21%
4.06
X/2
5%
11.4
X/X
9%
5.65
2/1
7%
22.1
2/2
7%
9.28
2/X
5%
17.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Portekiz win — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
60%
-1.8pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.6pp
19%
Away Win
18%
+1.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.4pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portekiz EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Danimarka EU Bookmakers 21%
+25% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
2.19/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.63
+57% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +31%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
419 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 78%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
13.9 Crosses 12.2
0.5 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portekiz
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Danimarka
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.51 xG 2.78
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
374 Passes 386
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 41
22 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 0
20.03.2025 Danimarka Danimarka 1-0 HT 0-0 Portekiz Portekiz AVUL
08.10.2015 Portekiz Portekiz 1-0 HT 0-0 Danimarka Danimarka AVŞE
14.10.2014 Danimarka Danimarka 0-1 HT 0-0 Portekiz Portekiz AVŞE
13.06.2012 Danimarka Danimarka 2-3 HT 1-2 Portekiz Portekiz AVR
11.10.2011 Danimarka Danimarka 2-1 HT 1-0 Portekiz Portekiz AVR
08.10.2010 Portekiz Portekiz 3-1 HT 2-0 Danimarka Danimarka AVR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portekiz
5-2
AWAY Danimarka
3.33 xG 1.92
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 14
11 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 8
571 Passes 364
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
32 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Portekiz vs Danimarka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portekiz swept aside Danimarka 5-2. Half-time: 1-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Portekiz as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Portekiz had 58% of the ball to Danimarka's 42%, shots finished 18-14, expected goals 3.33 to 1.92.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Portekiz had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Portekiz and 1.00 for Danimarka.

What was the final score of Portekiz vs Danimarka?

Portekiz 5-2 Danimarka in the UEFA Uluslar League on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portekiz vs Danimarka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portekiz win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Portekiz 58%, draw 24%, Danimarka 19%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Portekiz), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Portekiz) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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