Progreso 2-1 CA River Plate — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 23 Mar 2025

📅23/03/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.53
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
35%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
36%
+0.7pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.3pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-1.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.4pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY CA River Plate EU Bookmakers 39%
+4% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +7%
1.30/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.10
+9% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
333 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
3W-1D-2L
AWAY CA River Plate
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 4
19.10.2024 Progreso Progreso 2-0 HT 0-0 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
09.06.2024 Progreso Progreso 1-0 HT 1-0 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
21.04.2024 CA River Plate CA River Plate 2-2 HT 1-1 Progreso Progreso URU
09.10.2021 Progreso Progreso 1-0 HT 1-0 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
12.06.2021 CA River Plate CA River Plate 4-0 HT 3-0 Progreso Progreso URU
29.03.2021 CA River Plate CA River Plate 3-2 HT 2-0 Progreso Progreso URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
2-1
AWAY CA River Plate
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Progreso vs CA River Plate
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Progreso edged past CA River Plate 2-1.

Our pre-match split (37% / 29% / 35%) promised a tight game; Progreso found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Progreso had 49% of the ball to CA River Plate's 51%, shots finished 14-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Progreso had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Progreso and 1.50 for CA River Plate.

What was the final score of Progreso vs CA River Plate?

Progreso 2-1 CA River Plate in the Uruguay - Premier League on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs CA River Plate?

Before kick-off our model rated a Progreso win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Progreso 37%, draw 29%, CA River Plate 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Progreso) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Progreso) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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