Arezzo 4-1 Lucchese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 23 Apr 2025

📅23/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.86
Draw
31%
3.45
Away
31%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.71
Over 2.5
46%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.72
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
22%
3.96
6+ Goals
9%
18.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
50%
-12.0pp
31%
Draw
26%
+5.3pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+6.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
55%
-0.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
45%
+0.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.1pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arezzo EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Lucchese EU Bookmakers 28%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -11%
1.40/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.34
-2% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
334 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arezzo
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Lucchese
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.12.2024 Lucchese Lucchese 0-1 HT 0-1 Arezzo Arezzo İTC
08.04.2024 Lucchese Lucchese 1-1 HT 0-0 Arezzo Arezzo İTC
02.12.2023 Arezzo Arezzo 1-1 HT 0-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
03.10.2023 Arezzo Arezzo 3-4 HT 2-2 Lucchese Lucchese İTCK
15.11.2015 Arezzo Arezzo 1-2 HT 0-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arezzo
4-1
AWAY Lucchese
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arezzo vs Lucchese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arezzo cruised past Lucchese 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 31% / 31% — and on the day Arezzo made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Arezzo had 58% of the ball to Lucchese's 42%, shots finished 10-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Lucchese led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Arezzo and 1.60 for Lucchese.

What was the final score of Arezzo vs Lucchese?

Arezzo 4-1 Lucchese in the Italy - Serie C on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arezzo vs Lucchese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arezzo win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Arezzo 38%, draw 31%, Lucchese 31%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arezzo), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arezzo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTC More Italy - Serie C
23 Apr 2025
00:00 Sestri Levante vs Ascoli Analysis →
19:00 Ternana vs Pianese Analysis →
19:00 Sassari Torres vs Athletic Carpi Analysis →
19:00 Gubbio vs Milan II Analysis →
19:00 Legnago Salus vs Pescara Analysis →
19:00 Pontedera vs Rimini Analysis →